Saturday, August 4, 2012

If Romney wins, what can we expect?

If Romney wins, what can Americans expect?
With a Romney win, the US House and Senate are likely to be both Republican dominated. The agenda, in the first one hundred days will be furious. As DeMitt indicated, he believes every thing must be pushed through in that time frame because after that the American people will Wake UP and demand a more sane policy regarding domestic and foreign issues.

First off, forget any serious effort at social issues. That is Abortion. gay rights and health care. Republicans talk the talk but don't particularly care about these. They love the anger these issues generate but don;t like to waste political capital legislating against these. Health care in particular will get starved to death or obstructed on a state level. With no money available to implement Obama Cares, health care spending as a percentage of GDP will grow while more continue to lose their health insurance. Medicaid will be gutted, leaving about 35%  to 40% of the  population without heath insurance or the ability to pay for health care by 2016.

Regarding defense spending. More is better. But how much is waste? Romney has vowed to increase spending significantly, in the range of $250-$500 billion yearly. With no accountability and no source of increased Federal revenues other than 'trust me'. The bulk of the increase goes to weapons purchases, keeping much of old "Cold War' weapons systems in place'. Very little bang for the dollar.

On foreign affairs, I don't see a major shift in the short run, except regarding Iran. Romney, surrounded by Bush people, wants a face-off against Iran in order to prove he too is a war-time President. No one in their right mind believes Iran will be a cake-walk and the cost in treasure and lives would leave the USA near bankruptcy once the illusion of a short, quick war fades. The likelihood of increased terrorism directed at America targets both domestically and internationally   will sap the fortitude of the public.

It's clear where he wants to go by his verbal abandonment of the 'honest=broker' position the USA as held since 1967 when he mocked the Palestinians during his little foreign policy tour. It gives Israel a clear signal to end the false two state solution and annex the west-bank into Israel proper.

Domestic economic issues, however, are where Republicans want to leave a permanent stamp. Extending the complete Bush tax cuts are their primary goal. Secondly, adding the additional 20% tax cut Romney loves to hype is their  real objective. And this is where the real damage to the America economy comes from. So far, the Bush tax cuts, war with Iran, and increased defense spending deliveries an annual Federal deficit of around 1.5 to 1.75 trillion. The added 20% breaks the bank.

Here's why! How much were income taxes cut for the average American in the much-maligned Stimulus?  And the stimulus is set to expire. Well, it was greater than 20%. So, right-off the top, an average American income tax payer will see a modest income tax increase, under the guise of a tax cut. How fair is that? But, wait, the annual deficit is now running 2.5 trillion. Here is where Romney has solutions but are they realistic? He proposes numerous fixes in the tax code to make his 20% tax cut revenue neutral by ending or cutting back hundreds of specific income tax deductions, credits and
incentives to large and small business as well as those favoring the American public.  But will Congress go along. I seriously doubt it and here's why!

Take the talk of ending the homeowners interest deduction. Want to end home ownership has we
know it? The mortgage banking, real estate, home building and home improvement industries, who pay big money in annual lobby fees, will cry and howl and bring Congress to its knees. Imagine first time home purchasing falling completely off the cliff. I can't, so that's going to be a no-no. The same of course, holds for the hundreds of other tax credits, deductions and incentives. Corporate America doesn't spend millions yearly lobbying Congress to just decide, hey, let's give up this favorably tax environment we spend millions creating. Nearly all Corporate America pays little or no taxes under current law, do you think they are willing to pay another cent. It ain't going to happen. Corporations will replace every one of the tax increasers.

So, now America is looking at annual deficits in the range of 3 trillion.

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